Re: Republic of Venezuela
Posted: April 8th, 2015, 8:02 pm
Apropos the VERY ambitious carrier project: first of all the drawings are very nice, very nice indeed.
However, your time frame is very optimistic, to say it kindly. It's not very realistic in any way you regard it. So, let's take a look at it: two countries with CVN ambitions, none of whom previously have had any experience with such extremely complex vessels. Brasil has carrier operation experience, but only with conventional ones. Neither country has any experience building such huge vessels; in fact, Brasil has built nothing larger than the training frigate Brasil and the two last units of the Niteroi-class. Venezuela has no practice whatsoever of such shipbuilding. Those are the hard facts.
Now, how is then that these two 'rookie' nations can pull eight (8!) such vessels together in half the time that it usually takes the one proficient CVN user, the United States to built a Nimitz/Gerald Ford-class CVN? - and this with the help of a yard that only helpfully can be said to possess the technology needed (DCNS) and another one that does not possess it at all?
So, a realistic scenario would be to scrap, at least five if not six of these giant white elephants (for so they will be, especially for the not-too-populous Venezuela...) - I can agree that Brasil may be capable of operating two - but not more!
The planning, design stage would propably last, at least three to four years, if not more, after contracts having been signed and the respective governments (mind you, there are four [4] governments involved!) having reached agreements about the purchase, transfer of technology, counter purchases etc, so, laying down, if planning begins in 2016/17 would be around 2020.
Launching the hull can be a relatively quick business, especially if you build with modular technology, so, let's launch the first hull in, say 2023/24.
But now you're entering into the really, and I mean REALLY complex domain of completing the hull, i. e. turning it into a working ship. That will, conservatively calculated with all the above mentioned factors, propably last some six to 10(!) years! Now, if you add to this that you want your ships to be equipped with, say steam catapults, then you're going to run into a major snafu, since today only the United States is capable of building those, and what would make the U.S. want to sell such strategic know-how/commodity to a potential hostile country (Venezuela)? - So, your first unit won't be sailing till around 2033-35 (without catapults!), and then its work-up time will probably, again conservatively tallied, take another 18 to 36 months! (Again, without catapults!)
This is a far more realistic scenario - unless, of course, for political reasons your ships are being assembled in a dangerously fast, reckless and haphazard fashion! If so, then I reckon neither of the major navies you mentioned will have much to fear, and both Venezuela and Brasil will end up as laughing stocks internationally...
However, your time frame is very optimistic, to say it kindly. It's not very realistic in any way you regard it. So, let's take a look at it: two countries with CVN ambitions, none of whom previously have had any experience with such extremely complex vessels. Brasil has carrier operation experience, but only with conventional ones. Neither country has any experience building such huge vessels; in fact, Brasil has built nothing larger than the training frigate Brasil and the two last units of the Niteroi-class. Venezuela has no practice whatsoever of such shipbuilding. Those are the hard facts.
Now, how is then that these two 'rookie' nations can pull eight (8!) such vessels together in half the time that it usually takes the one proficient CVN user, the United States to built a Nimitz/Gerald Ford-class CVN? - and this with the help of a yard that only helpfully can be said to possess the technology needed (DCNS) and another one that does not possess it at all?
So, a realistic scenario would be to scrap, at least five if not six of these giant white elephants (for so they will be, especially for the not-too-populous Venezuela...) - I can agree that Brasil may be capable of operating two - but not more!
The planning, design stage would propably last, at least three to four years, if not more, after contracts having been signed and the respective governments (mind you, there are four [4] governments involved!) having reached agreements about the purchase, transfer of technology, counter purchases etc, so, laying down, if planning begins in 2016/17 would be around 2020.
Launching the hull can be a relatively quick business, especially if you build with modular technology, so, let's launch the first hull in, say 2023/24.
But now you're entering into the really, and I mean REALLY complex domain of completing the hull, i. e. turning it into a working ship. That will, conservatively calculated with all the above mentioned factors, propably last some six to 10(!) years! Now, if you add to this that you want your ships to be equipped with, say steam catapults, then you're going to run into a major snafu, since today only the United States is capable of building those, and what would make the U.S. want to sell such strategic know-how/commodity to a potential hostile country (Venezuela)? - So, your first unit won't be sailing till around 2033-35 (without catapults!), and then its work-up time will probably, again conservatively tallied, take another 18 to 36 months! (Again, without catapults!)
This is a far more realistic scenario - unless, of course, for political reasons your ships are being assembled in a dangerously fast, reckless and haphazard fashion! If so, then I reckon neither of the major navies you mentioned will have much to fear, and both Venezuela and Brasil will end up as laughing stocks internationally...