FD AU 3

[nighthunter]

Okay, as a historian, I have to interject, forgive me.

1.) The US would have probably remained Neutral during WW1, most likely, unless Mexico sided with the Central powers. CSA, probably would have sided with the Allied Powers.
2.) Mexico, would have sided with the Central powers (the Mexico Letters), and the CSA and Texas would have fought Mexico. Mexico invading the US Southern states, whether by intent or accident would have brought the US in on the side of the Allies, even considering getting involved in Europe, but most likely not.
3.) The US would have worked hard to stay "neutrally friendly" with the CSA, and in all probability would have had the CSA and USA involved in the Spanish American War, due to the sinking of the USS Maine affecting ALL Americans, Confederate and Union. CSA would have offered to deal with the Cuban Campaign and the USA would have dealt with the Philippines.

Just my $0.02 cents. I enjoy watching this develop and it's time for it's own thread, in my humble opinion.

[Paladin127]

Okay, as a historian, I have to interject, forgive me.

1.) The US would have probably remained Neutral during WW1, most likely, unless Mexico sided with the Central powers. CSA, probably would have sided with the Allied Powers.
2.) Mexico, would have sided with the Central powers (the Mexico Letters), and the CSA and Texas would have fought Mexico. Mexico invading the US Southern states, whether by intent or accident would have brought the US in on the side of the Allies, even considering getting involved in Europe, but most likely not.
3.) The US would have worked hard to stay "neutrally friendly" with the CSA, and in all probability would have had the CSA and USA involved in the Spanish American War, due to the sinking of the USS Maine affecting ALL Americans, Confederate and Union. CSA would have offered to deal with the Cuban Campaign and the USA would have dealt with the Philippines.

Just my $0.02 cents. I enjoy watching this develop and it's time for it's own thread, in my humble opinion.

All good points. And I'm actually starting a write up about a CSA AU right now. Hopefully I'll have SOMETHING up in a few days.

[adenandy]

I still believe that the British would not let the USA get away with invading Canada. I believe that the British would see such an invasion as an affront, and would have piled men and machines into Canada and they certainly wouldn't give up any territory gained. Just look at the land grab after Versailles of the old German Empire, remembering that Germany hadn't attacked Britain in the same way as the USA had done. and Alaska would definitely have been a target because of the OIL there, and the Northern Passage into the Pacific during the Summer Season.

Canadian men were fighting for the Empire on Flanders fields, and the British would see an attack on Canada like an attack on Britain herself. The Royal Navy would have blockaded American Ports and once the German High Seas fleet was interned in Scapa Flow, the Royal Navy's Grand Fleet would have sailed for American waters and sunk anything flying the Stars and Stripes. The British would have frozen US Assets, Interned US Citizens and the US would have felt the full force of Britain's Vengeance. Canada is Britain's 1st Dominion, and Britain would be VERY protective of her. ANZAC troops, Regiments raised from the British Pacific Islands and Indian troops returning from the Middle East would have been sent home via Canada. Troops from South Africa, Western Africa, the British Caribbean Regiments, British Honduras and the Bay Islands (Belize), Trinidad and Tobago, Newfoundland and Labrador could have been diverted to Canada, once released from the Western Front. A million or more battle hardened troops and their equipment would have landed at Halifax and other Port Terminus and would have defended the honour of Empire.

The British Empire and Commonwealth of Nations was a family of nations and, very much like with NATO, an attack against one was seen as an attack against all.

[adenandy]

To ilustrate the scenario with maps:

North America, 1914 (before the first world war started in North America:



After the Canadian counter offensive and the first confederate offensives which took control of southern Missouri as well as parts of southern Kentucky and a Kansas:



Btw during the scarce three months that the Canadian ocupation lasted on the state of Washington, a decree was sanctioned by the Canadian Governor General in virtue of which the state of Washington name was renamed as "George III Land".

After the US summer offensives which liberated the northern frontier:



And that's how the frontier got stuck until the end of world war 1.

What happened with Alaska, you may ask? Alaska wasn't seen as an important objective and neither Canada wanted to invade it and the US had not enough resources to plan an invasion of western Canada from there.

May I ask when and how Britain lost British Honduras, Jamaica (Home to the RN Caribbean Fleet) and Newfoundland?

[Naixoterk]

@ Nighthunter:

This all started with a just for fun repainting of the P-39 and ended up in a tsunami of AU ideas. Your points are very valid, and, in fact i thought about a CSA alligned with the axis for a World War 2 making a Blitzkrieg through Texas and turning around towards east through Kansas, northern Missouri, southern Illinois... all that while allied with a fascist Mexico wanting to regain California, Arizona... and so on, while expanding (rather catastrophically, like Italy in OTL) to the south up to the point where they would threat the Nicaragua channel (the US equivalent of the Panama Channel) but only after receiving help from the Confederate Central american corps (kinda like the Afrika Korps in OTL but this time fighting in the central american jungle instead of the desert) while the UK (which for the WW2 would be sided with the USA -the main objective would be the protection of the democracy against fascism-) would hold Jamaica as an "alamo island", kinda like the siege of Malta in WW2, but this time in the Caribbean.

BTW, i see a flaw in you reasoning about the Spanish-Confederate war, and it's that you're supposing that it would start with the sinking of the Maine. What if it was sparked by another event which involved only the CSA?

@adenady.

The alaskan oil had been discovered by 1914?. If so, that's a big flaw caused by amateurish knowledge of American history. So, are you suggesting that the British empire would have invaded the USA on their own?

BTW, in that map Jamaica Belize and Hawaii are British, not Texan, the tone of red is different in case you were wondering...

And another wild idea, what about including, in this scenario, an independent South African Republic (Transvaal) and/or an Orange Free State?

[Colosseum]

It's a scary scenario and one that I'm glad never happened...

[adenandy]

@ Nighthunter:

@adenady.

The alaskan oil had been discovered by 1914?. If so, that's a big flaw caused by amateurish knowledge of American history. So, are you suggesting that the British empire would have invaded the USA on their own?

I am by NO means an expert on American history, so forgive me if I am wrong, but I believe Oil was first discovered in Alaska by an Englishman in or around 1900. Perhaps one of our American historians could answer this question with some certainty please?

[seeker36340]

And another wild idea, what about including, in this scenario, an independent South African Republic (Transvaal) and/or an Orange Free State?

That sounds quite interesting!!!!!!!!!

[adenandy]

With regret Seeker, I really don't see Britain granting South Africa Independence at that time for a whole multitude of reasons, including but by no means limited to the amount of GOLD and GEM STONES mined in South Africa.

Off the top of my head (it's 4.41am here and I've had no sleep yet!), I think roughly 75% of the Empires Gold and Platinum and 60% of Diamonds were mined in South and Southern Africa.... And too much blood had been spilled to acquire the territory for the Crown.

[Naixoterk]

@adenady:

Do you think the British empire would have invaded the US mainland in 1918/1919 after having to deal with the tremendous losses of the first world war, the raising movements of the working class, the suffragist protests, the troops sent, rather secretly, to Russia to fight in the civil war there (which BTW their pressence there was almost a secret of state to avoid creating even more unrest in the society) and all those problems? I, honestly don't think so, even if, as you said, they could get a lot of available troops.

The British war department knew that, the US, in spite of having lost a war, they were still a considerable force to take care about and, even if they were going to be defeated, the human/material cost would be very high (cost which should be added to that of the first world war). And by 1918 the size of the US navy was... respectable to say the least, and a naval blockade would've been very costly for the Royal Navy.

You may think that they could count with the support of the CSA and make a combined attack north/south. But also, the CSA just having finished a very costly war they wouldn't want to start another one.

In other terms, a war based on reprisals against the US in the inmediate postwar would've been very costly for the empire in human and material terms. That's why i said that they chose the option of economical sanctions against them. Sanctions contracted by the USA with the UK, and the CSA, mainly but, as i said previously the US signed a paralell pact in Houston in virtue of which the war debt the US had with the CSA was partially condoned.

About the US entrance in the war, in this timeline i think that the German diplomatic efforts would concentrate on the US, instead of Mexico because having the US on your side was much more attractive than having Mexico. That's why the Zimmerman telegram and the Mexican letters were sent to the US instead ot Mexico, promising them the whole lands of the CSA and full German support, if they attacked the CSA.
Why did Germany do this? Because the CSA was supplying UK with many war supplies and they aimed to stop those supply convoys.

Regarding the Boers... i think that the way of making them to survive is if they counted with active foreign support.