World War III - Planning

[Thiel]

They got Anti task force missiles,

But no way of guiding them.

advanced submarines.

So does the US, and the US has more. A lot more actually. 53 active nuclear attack submarines. In comparison the PRC has, on the outside, 13.

And dont forget their new Fighter

Is still ten years away from being deployed according to the PLC government.
From what little is known it seems to be in the same performance bracket as the F-35A.

+ Tanks...

Are rather irrelevant since the PLA lacks the means to deploy them to the likely combat areas. (See aforementioned shoals of SSNs)

[Mitchell van Os]

I dont know, but advanced Diesel subs are at some points better then Nuke attack subs.
So how do you want to put those togheter?
And that Fighter, it will be earlier in battle then you think.
Maby at the same time as the F-35...

[Thiel]

I dont know, but advanced Diesel subs are at some points better then Nuke attack subs.
So how do you want to put those togheter?
And that Fighter, it will be earlier in battle then you think.
Maby at the same time as the F-35...

China has 12 Kilos, 13 Type 039s, and maybe 7 Type 041s (There's some confusion on the matter)
In addition to this they have somewhere between 23 and 31 Romeo class boats as well, but they are very old and obsolete.
So all in all, the PLAN have 76 subs, almost half of which are uselessly obsolete.
So even if you include the useful SSKs the US still outnumbers the PLAN by 8 boats.
And from what information there's available, none of the Chinese boats have AIP systems.

[Carnac]

I think I need to clear a few things up. In this AU, China would be ahead quite a bit from it's irl position, having already completed the Varyag and having developed the J-20 signifigantly sooner. This is what allows this scenario to even be possible, otherwise and insta-crush by American forces would be too likely for China to risk war.

[APDAF]

Yes but one of those subs can sink a nimitz class carrier.

[Carnac]

Assuming the sub penetrates the Nimitz's escorts, it's own anti-sub helos, it's escorts' anti-sub helos, and the torpedo strikes the ship instead of the decoys, and then enough torpedoes hit to overcome such a massive and well-built ship, yes.

In other words, no.

[acelanceloet]

well it is possible. the dutch submarines have 'sunk' carriers and escorts during practice. and those are rather outdated dieselelectric subs.
fact is, that's practise, and no sub can ever expect to have perfect circumstances. in reality, I don't think I would even try to attack an carrier with subs, because the odds are, as best, 1 on 1. 1 sub for every ship lost....... I think there are better ways.

[Thiel]

I think I need to clear a few things up. In this AU, China would be ahead quite a bit from it's irl position, having already completed the Varyag and having developed the J-20 signifigantly sooner. This is what allows this scenario to even be possible, otherwise and insta-crush by American forces would be too likely for China to risk war.

Thing is, that goes both ways.
If China aims to go to war with the US and her allies then the signs will be obvious and will most likely trigger an arms race. A race, I might ad, the west is still in a position to win. True, China probably has the single highest production capacity in the world, but by far the majority of it is geared for civilian production and it's barely even capable of that much. (It's not uncommon for a newly delivered ship to be unable to leave the drydock because it can't get its engine to run)
The western world on the other hand has a production facility that has been tailored to high quality production since that's the only way it's going to survive. This means that a whole lot more of it is capable of being retooled for weapons production

Anyway, my point is if China starts pushing, the US will respond. They even have a couple of likely choices including keeping the Enterprise for a couple of more years, increase funding for the F35, build more F22s (As far as I'm aware they haven't finished the current order yet, so the production line and the workers are still there)

[Carnac]

Well, in an AU, we can stretch and bend the truth a bit :P

[Thiel]

Well, in an AU, we can stretch and bend the truth a bit

True, but personally I find an AU to be much more enjoyable if both sides get the benefit of said bending.

having already completed the Varyag

Forgot to address this earlier.
Completing the Varyag even building another ten of her does not give the PLAN a viable carrier force.
It has taken the USN 90 years to get where it is today. Obviously the PLAN won't have to start from scratch like the USN had to, but they'll still be facing a steep learning curve. Personally I wouldn't be surprised if it takes another 15 years from they complete the Varyag before they posses a truly functional carrier wing. In my opinion it's likely that it'll end up as an evaluation carrier much like the USS Langley were for the USN.